BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Alder Flycatcher In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 429% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+429%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Alder Flycatcher has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 429% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.48–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+76%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.48–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.48–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.452.1
20261.30.462.1
20271.30.462.1
20281.30.472.1
20291.30.482.1

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
West BangorNEW-YORK231999
EllenburgNEW-YORK72006
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK62023
DuanesburgNEW-YORK52024
NashvilleNEW-YORK52018
OgdensburgNEW-YORK52024
RandolphNEW-YORK42018
WatertownNEW-YORK42012
BalmatNEW-YORK42008
ShaftsburyVERMONT42024
BristolVERMONT42017
PulaskiNEW-YORK32024
Alder CreekNEW-YORK32004
OneidaNEW-YORK32010
GarrettsvileOHIO31988
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA32024
HinesburgVERMONT31993
AusterlitzNEW-YORK22007
BranchportNEW-YORK22024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK21998
ParishvilleNEW-YORK22024
PittsfieldOHIO22014
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA22024
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA21976
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.