BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Alder Flycatcher In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+111%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Alder Flycatcher has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Alder Flycatcher In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 5.4–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 5.4–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.85.18.5
20276.95.28.5
20286.95.28.6
20297.05.38.7
20307.15.48.7

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA782022
CromwellMINNESOTA402025
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN232025
MareniscoMICHIGAN172019
ChisholmMINNESOTA172024
Hart LakeMINNESOTA152025
JordanMINNESOTA152025
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN142025
HovlandMINNESOTA132025
McgregorMINNESOTA132025
WaskishMINNESOTA122025
MahtowaMINNESOTA112023
BigforkMINNESOTA112025
HermanMICHIGAN102022
LudeMINNESOTA102025
IshpemingMICHIGAN92025
GilchristMICHIGAN92021
RacoMICHIGAN92025
PickfordMICHIGAN92025
Scott'S MarshMICHIGAN92010
LockportMINNESOTA92025
Crane LakeMINNESOTA92025
Nett LakeMINNESOTA92024
RhinelanderWISCONSIN92023
ShingletonMICHIGAN82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.