BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Alder Flycatcher In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+125%Since 1968
121Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Alder Flycatcher has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 5.4–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029
7.1Projected 2029 index
5.4–8.895% range
±21%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20256.85.28.5
20266.95.28.6
20277.05.38.6
20287.05.48.7
20297.15.48.8

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA782022
PickfordMICHIGAN352024
CromwellMINNESOTA182024
MareniscoMICHIGAN172019
JordanMINNESOTA172023
ChisholmMINNESOTA172024
GilmanWISCONSIN142024
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN142024
GlendaleMINNESOTA132024
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN122024
FloodwoodMINNESOTA122024
LudeMINNESOTA122023
MahtowaMINNESOTA112023
HermanMICHIGAN102022
Hart LakeMINNESOTA102024
WaskishMINNESOTA102024
GreenbushMINNESOTA102024
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN102024
GilchristMICHIGAN92021
RacoMICHIGAN92024
Scott'S MarshMICHIGAN92010
McgregorMINNESOTA92024
BigforkMINNESOTA92024
Nett LakeMINNESOTA92024
Iron RiverWISCONSIN92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.