BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acorn Woodpecker In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Acorn Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+42%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Acorn Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Acorn Woodpecker In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acorn Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acorn Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.60.0011
20265.60.0011
20275.60.0011
20285.60.0011
20295.60.0011

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Acorn Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA412021
PrescottARIZONA402022
Happy JackARIZONA212024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO202023
PortalARIZONA182024
PatagoniaARIZONA142024
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO142024
AlpineARIZONA92023
Mormon LakeARIZONA81974
PinetopARIZONA82022
Forest LakesARIZONA72024
SprucedaleARIZONA72023
Sunizona 2ARIZONA72024
Carr MtnARIZONA62024
Peña BlancaARIZONA52024
Mt. GrahamARIZONA52023
SunizonaARIZONA41997
RuckerARIZONA32009
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22024
FlagstaffARIZONA12016
BlueARIZONA11990
PomereneARIZONA11980
WilliamsARIZONA12019
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.