BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acorn Woodpecker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Acorn Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-72%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acorn Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Acorn Woodpecker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acorn Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.05 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±231.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±231.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acorn Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.05 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±231.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.12
20240.000.000.12
20250.000.000.12
20260.000.000.12
20270.000.000.12

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Acorn Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horse MtnNEW-MEXICO72022
SawmillARIZONA42014
TsaileARIZONA32019
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO32021
Horse SpgsNEW-MEXICO21979
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO22017
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO21997
ZeniffARIZONA11972
CebollaNEW-MEXICO12017
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO11979
DulceNEW-MEXICO12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.