BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+84%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
349Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.9 (95% range 3.7–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.9 (95% range 3.7–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.83.56.0
20264.83.66.1
20274.93.66.1
20284.93.76.1
20294.93.76.2

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar HollowOHIO562024
DresdenOHIO402024
Front RoyalVIRGINIA362024
Mohican S.F.OHIO352024
New MarketVIRGINIA322024
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA282021
GlenwoodVIRGINIA232023
Wayne N.F.OHIO202024
Tick RidgeOHIO202019
Broad Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA202024
NicutWEST-VIRGINIA202024
CedarvilleWEST-VIRGINIA202023
SmithfieldWEST-VIRGINIA202024
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY191997
SmithsburgMARYLAND192014
Bald KnobVIRGINIA192024
BreedenWEST-VIRGINIA192024
Strange CrkWEST-VIRGINIA182024
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY162018
Laurel HillPENNSYLVANIA162024
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA162024
Mountain Lk.VIRGINIA162018
Josephs MillWEST-VIRGINIA162024
MeadlandWEST-VIRGINIA162024
Coal RunOHIO151992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.