BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
350Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.7–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.7–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.83.66.0
20274.83.66.1
20284.93.66.1
20294.93.76.1
20304.93.76.2

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar HollowOHIO562024
New MarketVIRGINIA372025
Mohican S.F.OHIO302025
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA282021
NicutWEST-VIRGINIA272025
Front RoyalVIRGINIA262025
Strange CrkWEST-VIRGINIA252025
DresdenOHIO242025
GlenwoodVIRGINIA232023
MeadowvilleWEST-VIRGINIA212025
Tick RidgeOHIO202019
CedarvilleWEST-VIRGINIA202023
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY191997
SmithsburgMARYLAND192014
BreedenWEST-VIRGINIA192024
Broad Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA182025
RinggoldWEST-VIRGINIA182025
StonecreekOHIO172025
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA172025
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY162018
CarterKENTUCKY162025
Mountain Lk.VIRGINIA162018
Josephs MillWEST-VIRGINIA162024
Coal RunOHIO151992
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA152025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.