BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+161%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
317Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.7–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.7–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.32.64.1
20263.42.64.1
20273.42.74.2
20283.52.74.2
20293.52.74.2

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace SouthMISSISSIPPI412019
MansfieldTENNESSEE392024
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI352019
Oak Ridge VickMISSISSIPPI352021
Trace AttalaMISSISSIPPI312019
Vicksburg NpMISSISSIPPI252021
Big SandyTENNESSEE252024
EpesALABAMA222024
Trace ChickasawMISSISSIPPI222023
Trace ChoctawMISSISSIPPI202019
SurryVIRGINIA202024
Sprott-Cahaba RivALABAMA182014
NewsomsVIRGINIA162024
PlettenbergLOUISIANA152022
BeverlyMISSISSIPPI152011
Fort AdamsMISSISSIPPI152022
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA152017
BranchvilleVIRGINIA152024
NewvilleVIRGINIA152024
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA142017
RiderwoodALABAMA122023
GreensboroALABAMA122024
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA122017
SilertonTENNESSEE122024
HowardALABAMA112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.