BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 300% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+300%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 300% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Acadian Flycatcher In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.3–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.3–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.52.15.0
20263.62.15.0
20273.62.25.1
20283.72.25.1
20293.72.35.2

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI282021
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS262024
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI242022
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA232024
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA162024
South BendARKANSAS122023
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY92024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA62024
BardwellKENTUCKY52003
DundeeMISSISSIPPI42022
HughesARKANSAS32023
SaffellARKANSAS32016
ShawLOUISIANA32024
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI32011
WhittonARKANSAS21991
MaynardARKANSAS22023
GillettARKANSAS22024
FreetownLOUISIANA21985
ConcordLOUISIANA22019
Port AllenLOUISIANA22024
CommerceMISSISSIPPI21981
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI22024
DeventerMISSOURI22023
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI22024
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.