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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Acadian Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Acadian Flycatcher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.12.8
20272.01.12.8
20282.01.12.8
20292.01.12.8
20302.01.12.8

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NanceARKANSAS142025
IvanLOUISIANA142013
Ivan 2LOUISIANA102025
Locust BayouARKANSAS82023
PoyenARKANSAS82007
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS82025
NatchezLOUISIANA82025
Poyen 2ARKANSAS72025
EastonLOUISIANA71990
SpringhillARKANSAS62022
CartervilleLOUISIANA61992
EnterpriseLOUISIANA62025
WechesTEXAS62025
HopeARKANSAS52025
HavanaARKANSAS52021
Magazine MtnARKANSAS52025
Four LakesARKANSAS52001
DerryLOUISIANA51989
Flat CreekLOUISIANA52025
BethelOKLAHOMA52025
Mt. HermanOKLAHOMA52019
StephensARKANSAS42025
Fort PolkLOUISIANA41974
Mount UnionLOUISIANA42025
OakdaleLOUISIANA41994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.