BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 278% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+278%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 278% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Acadian Flycatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.24–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.24–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.330.220.44
20270.340.230.45
20280.340.230.45
20290.350.240.46
20300.350.240.46

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MontereyMICHIGAN102025
NashvilleMICHIGAN82025
AlmenaMICHIGAN62015
PackertownINDIANA52004
DeckervilleMICHIGAN51984
New BuffaloMICHIGAN52014
Packertown 2INDIANA42025
MottvilleMICHIGAN42025
ScottvilleMICHIGAN32025
Belding 2MICHIGAN32024
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN32012
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN32019
CascoWISCONSIN32002
GuilfordILLINOIS21999
South BendINDIANA21990
MiddleburyINDIANA22025
EllisINDIANA22024
LawrenceMICHIGAN22025
BravoMICHIGAN22022
JuniataMICHIGAN22009
PettysvilleMICHIGAN21973
AdairMICHIGAN21991
MillvilleMINNESOTA22016
NapoleonOHIO21972
KnoxINDIANA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.