BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 176% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+176%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 176% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.32–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+104%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–0.8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.32–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.290.84
20260.570.300.85
20270.580.310.85
20280.590.320.86
20290.590.320.87

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA72023
GarrettsvileOHIO51991
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA42023
LucerneOHIO32024
HiramOHIO32021
CloverPENNSYLVANIA32024
RomulusNEW-YORK21990
PittsfieldOHIO22024
WaylandOHIO22017
LattasburgOHIO22023
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA22024
W ShokanNEW-YORK12019
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12019
OrleansNEW-YORK11967
BranchportNEW-YORK11998
CastileNEW-YORK12009
RandolphNEW-YORK12012
SheridanNEW-YORK12024
Cherry HillNEW-YORK11986
NashvilleNEW-YORK12018
ByronNEW-YORK11987
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK11991
PulaskiNEW-YORK12021
MiddlefieldOHIO12014
StrongsvilleOHIO11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.