BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 176% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+176%Since 1968
35Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 176% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.32–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+104%Change by 2029
0.59Projected 2029 index
0.32–0.8795% range
±44.9%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.570.290.84
20260.570.300.85
20270.580.310.85
20280.590.320.86
20290.590.320.87

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA72023
GarrettsvileOHIO51991
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA42023
LucerneOHIO32024
HiramOHIO32021
CloverPENNSYLVANIA32024
RomulusNEW-YORK21990
PittsfieldOHIO22024
WaylandOHIO22017
LattasburgOHIO22023
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA22024
W ShokanNEW-YORK12019
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12019
OrleansNEW-YORK11967
BranchportNEW-YORK11998
CastileNEW-YORK12009
RandolphNEW-YORK12012
SheridanNEW-YORK12024
Cherry HillNEW-YORK11986
NashvilleNEW-YORK12018
ByronNEW-YORK11987
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK11991
PulaskiNEW-YORK12021
MiddlefieldOHIO12014
StrongsvilleOHIO11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.