BirdAnalyst
Guild · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Shorebirds In Vermont

All statesVermont

4 species in this guild. As a group they are -47%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Shorebirds as a group have declined in Vermont, down 47% since 1968.

Shorebirds In Vermont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Vermont is projected to rise about 126% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+126%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±141.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Vermont is projected to rise about 126% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.650.001.5
20270.630.001.5
20280.610.001.5
20290.600.001.5
20300.580.001.5

Member Species In Vermont

Shorebirds species in Vermont.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
KilldeerCharadriidae-89%
Spotted SandpiperScolopacidae-68%
American WoodcockScolopacidae-8%
Wilson's SnipeScolopacidae+248%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.