BirdAnalyst
Guild · New Hampshire · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Shorebirds In New Hampshire

All statesNew Hampshire

4 species in this guild. As a group they are -74%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Shorebirds as a group have fallen sharply in New Hampshire, down 74% since 1968.

Shorebirds In New Hampshire Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.54
20260.140.000.53
20270.120.000.52
20280.110.000.50
20290.100.000.49

Member Species In New Hampshire

Shorebirds species in New Hampshire.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
KilldeerCharadriidae-91%
Spotted SandpiperScolopacidae-58%
Wilson's SnipeScolopacidae-55%
American WoodcockScolopacidae-4%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.