BirdAnalyst
Guild · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Shorebirds In Michigan

All statesMichigan

4 species in this guild. As a group they are -20%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for shorebirds in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Michigan is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.19–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Michigan is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.19–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.282.4
20261.30.262.4
20271.30.232.3
20281.30.212.3
20291.20.192.3

Member Species In Michigan

Shorebirds species in Michigan.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Spotted SandpiperScolopacidae-89%
American WoodcockScolopacidae-76%
KilldeerCharadriidae-20%
Wilson's SnipeScolopacidae-6%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.