BirdAnalyst
Guild · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Shorebirds In Indiana

All statesIndiana

3 species in this guild. As a group they are +437%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for shorebirds in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Indiana is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 9.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.6–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.6–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Indiana is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 9.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.6–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025116.016
2026116.216
2027116.316
2028116.416
2029126.617

Member Species In Indiana

Shorebirds species in Indiana.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Spotted SandpiperScolopacidae-56%
American WoodcockScolopacidae-31%
KilldeerCharadriidae+466%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.