BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Snipe In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaShorebirds

Wilson's Snipe in Sierra Nevada has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-76%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Snipe has collapsed in Sierra Nevada: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Wilson's Snipe In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Snipe in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±101.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Snipe in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.000.94
20260.290.000.93
20270.280.000.92
20280.270.000.91
20290.260.000.90

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Wilson's Snipe in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA52023
SattleyCALIFORNIA42019
GoumazCALIFORNIA42011
PaxtonCALIFORNIA32024
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA21974
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA21985
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA22000
GeneseeCALIFORNIA22024
ChesterCALIFORNIA22012
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA22008
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA11985
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12014
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12022
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA11997
ChilcootCALIFORNIA12024
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.