BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Phalarope In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Great Basin has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-55%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Phalarope has fallen sharply in Great Basin: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Wilson's Phalarope In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Great Basin is projected to rise about 392% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±405.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+392%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±405.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Great Basin is projected to rise about 392% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±405.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.001.5
20260.530.001.5
20270.510.001.5
20280.500.001.5
20290.490.001.5

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PromontoryUTAH752016
Catlow RimOREGON602021
Fish LakeOREGON422021
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON222004
DorrisCALIFORNIA202018
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA132007
Sand PassNEVADA122006
PrincetonOREGON121985
LeadoreIDAHO112001
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA102007
LynnUTAH102021
OthelloWASHINGTON101990
Twin ButtesIDAHO81999
Grouse CreekUTAH81983
SquirrelIDAHO71999
NighthawkWASHINGTON72019
MacdoelCALIFORNIA62015
Toiyabe NfNEVADA62003
Bald Mtn.NEVADA61992
Oak CityUTAH62000
Blackft ResIDAHO52016
GardnervilleNEVADA52005
CallaoUTAH52024
BentonCALIFORNIA42016
DuboisIDAHO42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.