BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Phalarope In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Badlands and Prairies has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wilson's Phalarope in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Wilson's Phalarope In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.3
20261.10.002.3
20271.10.002.3
20281.10.002.3
20291.10.002.3

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawmutMONTANA442024
HighwoodMONTANA412024
Wheat BasinMONTANA172024
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA132024
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA102019
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA92021
RoundupMONTANA92018
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA82011
RoyMONTANA72024
IngomarMONTANA72023
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA62019
NatronaWYOMING61992
KayceeWYOMING62024
St XavierMONTANA51992
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA52015
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA51968
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
BillWYOMING52018
Seely 2WYOMING52008
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA42011
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA42022
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA41968
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA42002
Railroad ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA41998
ClarkelenWYOMING41978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.