BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wilson's Phalarope In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wilson's Phalarope in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Wilson's Phalarope In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.002.4
20271.10.002.4
20281.10.002.4
20291.20.002.4
20301.20.002.4

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA542025
ShawmutMONTANA192025
Wheat BasinMONTANA172025
KayceeWYOMING132025
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA102025
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA102019
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA82011
RoyMONTANA72025
IngomarMONTANA72023
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA62023
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA62019
NatronaWYOMING61992
St XavierMONTANA51992
Cabin CreekMONTANA52025
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA52025
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA51968
BillWYOMING52018
Seely 2WYOMING52008
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA42011
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA42022
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA41968
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA42002
Railroad ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA41998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.