BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Phalarope In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-80%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Phalarope has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Wilson's Phalarope In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±638.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±638.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±638.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.160.000.80
20250.150.000.80
20260.150.000.80
20270.150.000.79
20280.140.000.79

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlamosaCOLORADO62023
SoapstoneUTAH52001
ParlinCOLORADO41989
Stillwater PassCOLORADO42003
BufordCOLORADO32009
DoylevilleCOLORADO32005
BrookhurstWYOMING32016
CortezCOLORADO21997
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO21992
PowderhornCOLORADO21995
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO22016
Heber Mtn.UTAH22016
VernalUTAH22018
Wellington 2UTAH22009
WarbonnetWYOMING22005
Sybille CynWYOMING22015
ColonaCOLORADO11988
MoffatCOLORADO12021
DoloresCOLORADO11985
Wray GulchCOLORADO11991
Wilson CreekCOLORADO12011
WaldenCOLORADO12019
Lost LakeCOLORADO12002
TarryallCOLORADO12013
CastletonCOLORADO12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.