BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Phalarope In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Northern Rockies has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wilson's Phalarope in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Wilson's Phalarope In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 327% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+327%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±245.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 327% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.001.1
20260.540.001.1
20270.550.001.1
20280.550.001.1
20290.550.001.1

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FontenelleWYOMING502021
Saleratus CrUTAH122016
DanielWYOMING121988
ClarkWYOMING102024
Neponset ResUTAH92018
BeaverheadMONTANA62017
E. Bear LakeUTAH62021
MooseWYOMING61978
ChallisIDAHO51989
DuboisWYOMING52015
Elk HornWYOMING52002
Horse CreekWYOMING52017
Patrick Draw 2WYOMING51981
PolsonMONTANA41997
AnchorWYOMING42016
RawlinsWYOMING41993
YellowstoneWYOMING42013
AugustaMONTANA32021
East Glacier ParkMONTANA32021
Malheur Res.OREGON32022
WoodruffUTAH32004
ChewelahWASHINGTON31981
RiversideWYOMING32005
BoulderWYOMING31995
LeoWYOMING32004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.