BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willet In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieShorebirds

Willet in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-51%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willet has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Willet In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willet in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willet in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.005.9
20271.80.005.8
20281.80.005.8
20291.80.005.7
20301.70.005.7

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Willet in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS252025
StowellTEXAS222023
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA212025
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA192011
ChinquapinTEXAS182025
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA171982
Padre Island PaisTEXAS132015
Lag AtascosaTEXAS112025
Oyster LakeTEXAS82025
Bayside 3TEXAS72025
CreoleLOUISIANA61987
PetronilaTEXAS52021
Grand IsleLOUISIANA32019
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA32008
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA32016
HackberryLOUISIANA22012
EstherLOUISIANA22004
IndianolaTEXAS22023
Bayside 2TEXAS22004
JuniorLOUISIANA11987
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA12021
Forked IslandLOUISIANA12015
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA12011
Hinkles FerTEXAS11986
WinnieTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.