BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willet In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainShorebirds

Willet in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willet has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Willet In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willet in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±158.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willet in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.17
20260.050.000.17
20270.040.000.16
20280.040.000.16
20290.040.000.15

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Willet in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Vincent IFLORIDA82024
Port St JoeFLORIDA22013
Santa RosaFLORIDA22003
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA22023
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA21971
Dauphin IsALABAMA11990
Alabama PtALABAMA11981
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA12014
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA12011
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA12001
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA12007
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA11976
Alligator PtFLORIDA12015
Cross CityFLORIDA12010
Port St Joe 2FLORIDA12017
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA12016
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA12024
NewportNORTH-CAROLINA12004
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA12024
PungoVIRGINIA11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.