BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willet In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesShorebirds

Willet in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+75%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willet has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Willet In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willet in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.06–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willet in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.06–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.050.47
20260.260.050.47
20270.270.050.48
20280.270.060.48
20290.270.060.48

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Willet in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HighwoodMONTANA92017
IngomarMONTANA52024
RoundupMONTANA42024
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA42009
UptonWYOMING42012
RecluseWYOMING31995
BucknumWYOMING32019
RoyMONTANA22023
Flatwillow 2MONTANA22018
Wheat BasinMONTANA22023
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA21992
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA22012
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA22024
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA22021
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA21978
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
NewcastleWYOMING22013
LeroyMONTANA12019
JordanMONTANA12002
Two DotMONTANA12024
ShawmutMONTANA12023
FlatwillowMONTANA11997
LocateMONTANA12008
AlbionMONTANA11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.