BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Whimbrel In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Shorebirds

Whimbrel in BCR 2 has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

-30%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Whimbrel in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Whimbrel In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Whimbrel in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±101.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Whimbrel in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.850.003.8
20260.800.003.7
20270.760.003.7
20280.710.003.6
20290.660.003.6

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Whimbrel in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
King SalmonALASKA462023
Kugarak (Short)ALASKA161987
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA161994
Selawik (Short)ALASKA71987
KotzebueALASKA52024
Cape NomeALASKA32024
NomeALASKA32023
St. Mary'SALASKA32014
TellerALASKA22010
Gweek RiverALASKA22002
CouncilALASKA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.