BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Sandpiper In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestShorebirds

Spotted Sandpiper in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-57%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Sandpiper has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.000.78
20260.220.000.76
20270.200.000.74
20280.180.000.72
20290.160.000.70

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Spotted Sandpiper in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA92007
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA62019
CougarWASHINGTON62023
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA41970
LongvaleCALIFORNIA42023
OrleansCALIFORNIA42012
KetchikanALASKA32016
HainesALASKA32023
HoneydewCALIFORNIA32017
WedderburnOREGON32024
CanbyOREGON32019
RaymondWASHINGTON32013
CarnationWASHINGTON32017
SitkaALASKA21996
HyderALASKA22009
Elmendorf (Short)ALASKA21985
Stikine RiverALASKA22024
HolmesCALIFORNIA22023
Fish RockCALIFORNIA22014
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA22002
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA21988
YrekaCALIFORNIA22003
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA22005
HauserOREGON21970
ClearwaterOREGON22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.