BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Sandpiper In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Shorebirds

Spotted Sandpiper in BCR 4 has surged: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+200%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Sandpiper has surged in BCR 4: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.4 (95% range 1.0–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.4 (95% range 1.0–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.30.855.7
20263.30.895.7
20273.40.935.8
20283.40.975.8
20293.41.05.9

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Spotted Sandpiper in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kanuti CanynALASKA372024
Mud RiverALASKA212024
Anvik RiverALASKA182024
Hather CreekALASKA102024
Nicholai SlALASKA92024
Unalakleet RiverALASKA92024
Bear CreekALASKA81991
Pinoche Tral (Short)ALASKA61984
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA52001
Porcupine R.ALASKA42002
Paxson LakeALASKA41995
CircleALASKA32024
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA32024
Caribou Mtn.ALASKA32018
McgrathALASKA32022
Kanuti LakeALASKA32024
Galena (Short)ALASKA32023
SlanaALASKA22022
ChistochinaALASKA22022
ToklatALASKA21986
Goose BayALASKA21982
ChickenALASKA22024
EagleALASKA12024
Chatanika RALASKA11995
Birch LakeALASKA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.