BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Sandpiper In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaShorebirds

Spotted Sandpiper in Coastal California has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-54%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Sandpiper has fallen sharply in Coastal California: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.030.000.10
20210.030.000.10
20220.030.000.10
20230.030.000.10
20240.030.000.10

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Spotted Sandpiper in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA21977
CoyoteCALIFORNIA22015
PescaderoCALIFORNIA22012
Red BluffCALIFORNIA11996
CalpellaCALIFORNIA11977
RumseyCALIFORNIA12002
HughsonCALIFORNIA11983
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA11986
GravesboroCALIFORNIA11979
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA12002
CoalingaCALIFORNIA11996
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA12006
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA11977
Big BearCALIFORNIA11970
FairfaxCALIFORNIA12019
OnoCALIFORNIA12012
FolsomCALIFORNIA12011
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA11981
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA12011
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA11977
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA11975
Elizabeth LkCALIFORNIA11979
VentucopaCALIFORNIA11990
Gold HillCALIFORNIA11991
WestleyCALIFORNIA12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.