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Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Sandpiper In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Shorebirds

Spotted Sandpiper in BCR 2 has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

-50%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Sandpiper has fallen sharply in BCR 2: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 60% by 2028 — from 0.22 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±184.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 60% by 2028 — from 0.22 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.410.001.5
20250.400.001.4
20260.380.001.4
20270.370.001.4
20280.360.001.4

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Spotted Sandpiper in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kanektok RivALASKA122005
Goodnews BayALASKA62005
Salmon LakeALASKA52018
Togiak RiverALASKA52005
TupuknukALASKA51995
TellerALASKA22011
Selawik (Short)ALASKA21986
KodiakALASKA11984
Katmai N.P.ALASKA12022
DillinghamALASKA12015
King SalmonALASKA12011
Kodiak 2ALASKA12012
CouncilALASKA12023
NomeALASKA12023
St. Mary'SALASKA11996
Gweek RiverALASKA11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.