BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Sandpiper In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaShorebirds

Spotted Sandpiper in Sierra Nevada has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-14%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Spotted Sandpiper in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Spotted Sandpiper In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.09–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.09–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.080.88
20260.480.080.88
20270.480.080.88
20280.480.080.88
20290.490.090.89

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Spotted Sandpiper in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA82024
GoumazCALIFORNIA32011
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA22012
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA22024
ChilcootCALIFORNIA21998
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA22017
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12007
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12005
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA12011
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA12008
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA12009
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA11980
SattleyCALIFORNIA12006
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA11998
GeneseeCALIFORNIA12023
DownievilleCALIFORNIA12021
RivertonCALIFORNIA12004
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA12001
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA11994
PaxtonCALIFORNIA12024
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA12023
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.