BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Sandpiper In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainShorebirds

Spotted Sandpiper in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Sandpiper has collapsed in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±166.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±166.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±166.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.27
20260.000.000.27
20270.000.000.27
20280.000.000.27
20290.000.000.27

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Spotted Sandpiper in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WatertownNEW-YORK362009
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK31971
PeruOHIO31969
W ShokanNEW-YORK21992
Ballston LkNEW-YORK21969
SheridanNEW-YORK21990
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK22022
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK22017
ArgyleNEW-YORK21988
ParishvilleNEW-YORK21971
West BangorNEW-YORK21990
WillsboroNEW-YORK21973
GarrettsvileOHIO21988
HiramOHIO22018
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA21967
Grand IsleVERMONT22012
RhinebeckNEW-YORK11975
HighlandNEW-YORK12004
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11987
DuanesburgNEW-YORK12017
CayugaNEW-YORK12024
RomulusNEW-YORK11977
MacdougallNEW-YORK12000
TrumansburgNEW-YORK11977
OrleansNEW-YORK12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.