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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Solitary Sandpiper In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Shorebirds

Solitary Sandpiper in BCR 4 has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+93%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Solitary Sandpiper has surged in BCR 4: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Solitary Sandpiper in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Solitary Sandpiper in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.001.1
20260.380.001.1
20270.370.001.1
20280.360.001.1
20290.350.001.1

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Solitary Sandpiper in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kanuti LakeALASKA72024
Porcupine R.ALASKA52002
Unalakleet RiverALASKA42003
Anvik RiverALASKA41998
EagleALASKA32022
ChistochinaALASKA31997
MonahanALASKA32021
Chena RiverALASKA31988
Chena Hot SpALASKA31990
Kenny LakeALASKA32024
Nicholai SlALASKA32022
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA32001
Mud RiverALASKA32022
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA32024
Chatanika RALASKA22019
NorthwayALASKA22002
CantwellALASKA22021
L SalchaALASKA22012
Hather CreekALASKA22022
CottonwoodALASKA21990
Manley Ht SpALASKA22022
Mt. FairplayALASKA22017
TatalinaALASKA22019
Galena (Short)ALASKA22017
KuskulanaALASKA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.