BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Solitary Sandpiper In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Shorebirds

Solitary Sandpiper in BCR 4 has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+39%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Solitary Sandpiper in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Solitary Sandpiper In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Solitary Sandpiper in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Solitary Sandpiper in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.380.001.1
20270.370.001.1
20280.360.001.1
20290.350.001.1
20300.340.001.1

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Solitary Sandpiper in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Burma RoadALASKA82025
Kanuti LakeALASKA72024
Porcupine R.ALASKA52002
Unalakleet RiverALASKA42003
Anvik RiverALASKA41998
EagleALASKA32022
MonahanALASKA32021
Chena RiverALASKA31988
Chena Hot SpALASKA31990
Nicholai SlALASKA32022
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA32001
Mud RiverALASKA32022
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA32025
Chatanika RALASKA22019
ChistochinaALASKA22025
NorthwayALASKA22002
CantwellALASKA22021
L SalchaALASKA22012
Lake LouiseALASKA22025
Hather CreekALASKA22022
CottonwoodALASKA21990
Manley Ht SpALASKA22022
Mt. FairplayALASKA22017
TatalinaALASKA22019
Galena (Short)ALASKA22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.