BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Snowy Plover In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinShorebirds

Snowy Plover in Great Basin has surged: up 459% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+459%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Snowy Plover has surged in Great Basin: up 459% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Snowy Plover In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Snowy Plover in Great Basin is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.12–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snowy Plover in Great Basin is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.12–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.080.59
20270.350.090.60
20280.350.100.61
20290.360.110.62
20300.370.120.63

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Snowy Plover in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SnowvilleUTAH792025
DorrisCALIFORNIA52011
Notch PeakUTAH41999
CallaoUTAH42025
PromontoryUTAH12025
Bear RiverUTAH12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.