BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Semipalmated Plover In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Shorebirds

Semipalmated Plover in BCR 2 has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+30%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Semipalmated Plover in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Semipalmated Plover in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Semipalmated Plover in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.004.1
20261.60.004.1
20271.60.004.1
20281.60.004.0
20291.60.004.0

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Semipalmated Plover in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cold BayALASKA152024
Kanektok RivALASKA132005
CouncilALASKA82024
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA61992
NomeALASKA52023
Togiak RiverALASKA52005
KotzebueALASKA52024
Goodnews BayALASKA52005
St. Mary'SALASKA32000
Cape NomeALASKA22023
Salmon LakeALASKA22023
KodiakALASKA11984
Katmai N.P.ALASKA12013
ChiniakALASKA12024
DillinghamALASKA11993
King SalmonALASKA12024
Kodiak 2ALASKA12023
TellerALASKA12012
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.