Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Red-necked Phalarope In BCR 4
Red-necked Phalarope in BCR 4 has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1983.
-96%Since 1983
18Routes In Region
31Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Red-necked Phalarope has collapsed in BCR 4: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1983.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Phalarope in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1333.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.195% range
±1333.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.1 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.1 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.1 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.1 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.1 |
Routes In BCR 4
| Tangle Lakes | ALASKA | 11 | 1987 |
| Paxson Lake | ALASKA | 7 | 1997 |
| Monahan | ALASKA | 6 | 2013 |
| Sourdough | ALASKA | 4 | 2000 |
| Goose Bay | ALASKA | 3 | 1976 |
| Unalakleet River | ALASKA | 3 | 2001 |
| Slana | ALASKA | 2 | 2007 |
| Maclaren | ALASKA | 2 | 2024 |
| Cantwell | ALASKA | 2 | 2001 |
| Kenny Lake | ALASKA | 2 | 1996 |
| Petersville | ALASKA | 2 | 1987 |
| Chistochina | ALASKA | 1 | 1994 |
| Toklat | ALASKA | 1 | 1986 |
| Lake Louise | ALASKA | 1 | 1993 |
| Coldfoot | ALASKA | 1 | 1995 |
| Murphy Dome | ALASKA | 1 | 2004 |
| Pinoche Tral (Short) | ALASKA | 1 | 1984 |
| Mccarthy Rd2 | ALASKA | 1 | 1991 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.