BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 3 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-necked Phalarope In BCR 3

All regionsBCR 3Shorebirds

Red-necked Phalarope in BCR 3 has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

21×Since 1996
4Routes In Region
24Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Red-necked Phalarope has surged in BCR 3: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-necked Phalarope in BCR 3 is projected to rise about 478% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.7 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+478%Change by 2029
8.7Projected 2029 index
0.00–1895% range
±70.7%Backtest error
19942029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20257.50.0017
20267.80.0017
20278.10.0017
20288.40.0018
20298.70.0018

Routes In BCR 3

Routes recording Red-necked Phalarope in BCR 3.
UtqiagvikALASKA622023
Galbraith L.ALASKA62024
Red DogALASKA62023
Happy ValleyALASKA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.