BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pigeon Guillemot In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestSeabirds

Pigeon Guillemot in Northern Pacific Rainforest has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-8%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pigeon Guillemot in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Pigeon Guillemot In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pigeon Guillemot in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pigeon Guillemot in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.000.30
20270.100.000.30
20280.090.000.30
20290.090.000.30
20300.090.000.29

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Pigeon Guillemot in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DeceptionWASHINGTON111998
Port AngelesWASHINGTON72025
WedderburnOREGON52024
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA41990
IlwacoWASHINGTON41993
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA32014
OzetteWASHINGTON31983
MukilteoWASHINGTON32025
Juneau AltALASKA21986
YakutatALASKA22025
Zimovia StrtALASKA22025
NavarroCALIFORNIA21978
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON22024
JuneauALASKA12013
KetchikanALASKA12018
HainesALASKA12024
ZaremboALASKA12017
HoneydewCALIFORNIA11983
Fish RockCALIFORNIA12008
Warm BeachWASHINGTON12016
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.