BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-billed Curlew In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieShorebirds

Long-billed Curlew in Gulf Coastal Prairie has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+12%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Long-billed Curlew in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±104.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.003.4
20261.10.003.5
20271.10.003.5
20281.10.003.5
20291.10.003.5

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Long-billed Curlew in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS202023
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS162024
BaysideTEXAS112010
Loyola BeachTEXAS92005
Lag AtascosaTEXAS42022
IndianolaTEXAS42013
San PedroTEXAS32014
DanburyTEXAS21997
ChinquapinTEXAS12013
Oyster LakeTEXAS12023
Bayside 2TEXAS12004
Bayside 3TEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.