BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-billed Curlew In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieShorebirds

Long-billed Curlew in Shortgrass Prairie has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Long-billed Curlew in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.700.002.5
20260.670.002.5
20270.640.002.5
20280.600.002.4
20290.570.002.4

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Long-billed Curlew in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DalhartTEXAS162024
LakinKANSAS151995
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO142023
Last ChanceCOLORADO111981
Sheridan LakCOLORADO111998
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA112024
KeyesOKLAHOMA112024
FeltOKLAHOMA92024
VillegreenCOLORADO82024
GrigstonKANSAS72012
AgateNEBRASKA62001
HaswellCOLORADO51999
EdlerCOLORADO52024
Agate 2NEBRASKA52024
RatonNEW-MEXICO51994
Wildhorse LCOLORADO41999
CampoCOLORADO42019
RuletonKANSAS41995
HobbsNEW-MEXICO42011
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO42021
TexlineTEXAS42024
PinneoCOLORADO31994
Two ButtesCOLORADO31994
BethuneCOLORADO32011
NinaviewCOLORADO32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.