BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Long-billed Curlew In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesShorebirds

Long-billed Curlew in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+237%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Long-billed Curlew has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Long-billed Curlew In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.23.5
20272.41.23.5
20282.41.33.6
20292.51.33.6
20302.51.33.6

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Long-billed Curlew in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RoyMONTANA292025
RoundupMONTANA282025
ShawmutMONTANA272025
WinnettMONTANA162025
Wheat BasinMONTANA162025
WinifredMONTANA142023
Winifred 2MONTANA142025
Two DotMONTANA132025
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA132024
Hehn DrawMONTANA112025
NewcastleWYOMING112024
FlatwillowMONTANA102008
Maynard CouleeMONTANA102025
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA92024
Flatwillow 2MONTANA82023
Jordan SouthMONTANA72024
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA72023
LuskWYOMING72025
Reed PointMONTANA62025
CrookstonNEBRASKA62025
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA62017
RiverviewWYOMING62022
St XavierMONTANA52010
Cabin CreekMONTANA52025
IngomarMONTANA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.