BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-billed Curlew In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesShorebirds

Long-billed Curlew in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 260% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+260%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Long-billed Curlew has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 260% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Long-billed Curlew In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.3–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.3–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.23.5
20262.41.23.5
20272.41.23.5
20282.41.23.6
20292.41.33.6

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Long-billed Curlew in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RoundupMONTANA312024
Winifred 2MONTANA242024
Wheat BasinMONTANA222024
ShawmutMONTANA142024
WinifredMONTANA142023
LeroyMONTANA132024
Two DotMONTANA132024
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA132024
LuskWYOMING122024
Maynard CouleeMONTANA112024
NewcastleWYOMING112024
RoyMONTANA102024
FlatwillowMONTANA102008
WinnettMONTANA92023
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA92024
Flatwillow 2MONTANA82023
Jordan SouthMONTANA72024
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA72023
Hehn DrawMONTANA62024
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA62017
RiverviewWYOMING62022
St XavierMONTANA52010
HighwoodMONTANA42023
Reed PointMONTANA42024
LindsayMONTANA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.