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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Sandpiper In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Shorebirds

Least Sandpiper in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-65%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Sandpiper has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Least Sandpiper In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Sandpiper in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±289.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±289.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Sandpiper in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±289.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.000.65
20270.210.000.65
20280.210.000.65
20290.210.000.65
20300.210.000.65

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Least Sandpiper in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Anvik RiverALASKA72022
MonahanALASKA42016
Hather CreekALASKA32024
Kanuti CanynALASKA31995
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA32022
CantwellALASKA22013
KalifonskyALASKA21982
Nicholai SlALASKA22025
ColdfootALASKA22018
RubyALASKA22025
Kobuk River (Short)ALASKA21992
Paxson LakeALASKA21997
MaclarenALASKA12025
ToklatALASKA12019
PetersvilleALASKA12023
Seven LakesALASKA11996
KachemakALASKA11993
Unalakleet RiverALASKA12023
CottonwoodALASKA11988
Mud RiverALASKA12022
Kanuti LakeALASKA12024
Galena (Short)ALASKA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.