BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Sandpiper In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Shorebirds

Least Sandpiper in BCR 2 has surged: up 636% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+636%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Sandpiper has surged in BCR 2: up 636% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Least Sandpiper In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Sandpiper in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 83% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-83%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Sandpiper in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 83% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.007.1
20262.40.007.1
20272.40.007.1
20282.40.007.1
20292.40.007.1

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Least Sandpiper in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cold BayALASKA1232024
King SalmonALASKA52024
Togiak RiverALASKA42004
KodiakALASKA21984
ChiniakALASKA22023
CouncilALASKA22006
St. Mary'SALASKA22011
Gweek RiverALASKA22002
TupuknukALASKA21995
Kodiak 2ALASKA12000
NomeALASKA12023
Kanektok RivALASKA12005
Goodnews BayALASKA12004
Selawik (Short)ALASKA11987
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA11992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.