BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dunlin In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Shorebirds

Dunlin in BCR 2 has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

+2%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dunlin in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Dunlin In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dunlin in BCR 2 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±465.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±465.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dunlin in BCR 2 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±465.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19852029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.004.2
20261.10.004.2
20271.10.004.2
20281.10.004.2
20291.10.004.2

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Dunlin in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CouncilALASKA112012
Cold BayALASKA82024
Cape NomeALASKA12024
NomeALASKA12010
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA11992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.