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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Oystercatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestShorebirds

Black Oystercatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-30%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Oystercatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Black Oystercatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Oystercatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Oystercatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.040.000.11
20230.040.000.11
20240.040.000.10
20250.030.000.10
20260.030.000.10

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Black Oystercatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sitka (Short)ALASKA31991
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA32021
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA21995
Redwood N.P.CALIFORNIA22007
Port AngelesWASHINGTON22018
HoneydewCALIFORNIA12017
Fish RockCALIFORNIA12009
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA11990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.