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  "publisher": {
    "name": "Bird Analyst",
    "url": "https://www.birdanalyst.com"
  },
  "generated": "2026-06-05T00:00:00Z",
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      "@type": "Organization",
      "name": "Bird Analyst",
      "description": "Bird Analyst is a trend-intelligence and narrative platform for North American breeding birds, built entirely on the public-domain USGS Breeding Bird Survey. It adds normalization, signal detection, forecasting, and plain-English storytelling on top of the federal record.",
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          "text": "Six decades of population trends from the public-domain USGS Breeding Bird Survey, made readable. Search a species, then drill into how it's faring family by family, guild by guild, and state by state.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/",
          "pageTitle": "Bird Analyst · North American Breeding Bird Trends",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
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          "text": "Bird Analyst is built on three commitments: plain English for readers, a single public-domain source with explicit attribution, and methods you can reproduce from the published numbers.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
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        },
        {
          "chunkId": "c_001c",
          "text": "Four leaderboards from the USGS Breeding Bird Survey. Click any column heading to re-sort, or jump straight to a board below.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/rankings/",
          "pageTitle": "Bird Population Rankings | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
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      "entityId": "e_002",
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      "name": "North American Breeding Bird Survey",
      "alternateName": "BBS",
      "description": "A standardized roadside bird count run every year since 1966 by the USGS and the Canadian Wildlife Service. It is the longest continental record of bird populations that exists, and it is entirely in the public domain.",
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      "maturityStatus": "established",
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          "text": "The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is a roadside count run every year since 1966 by the USGS Eastern Ecological Science Center (formerly Patuxent) and the Canadian Wildlife Service. It is the longest continental record of bird populations that exists, and it is entirely in the public domain.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
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        },
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          "chunkId": "c_002b",
          "text": "Each route is about 24.5 miles long with 50 stops spaced half a mile apart. Once a year, in June, a skilled volunteer drives the route starting half an hour before dawn and, at each stop, records every bird seen or heard in a three-minute window. About 3,000 routes run across the United States in a given year.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
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        },
        {
          "chunkId": "c_002c",
          "text": "Everything is built from the USGS Breeding Bird Survey: six decades of standardized roadside counts, run by volunteers, free for anyone to reproduce.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/",
          "pageTitle": "Bird Analyst · North American Breeding Bird Trends",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
          "contentType": "evidence"
        }
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      "entityId": "e_003",
      "@type": "Methodology",
      "name": "Bird Analyst Methodology",
      "description": "The published contract describing how Bird Analyst converts the Breeding Bird Survey into trends, signals, and forecasts — with explicit data-quality gates, suppression rules, and caveats so every figure is reproducible.",
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          "chunkId": "c_003a",
          "text": "This page is the contract. Every trend, signal, and forecast on the site is computed by the rules below, from the federal record described at the bottom.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
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        },
        {
          "chunkId": "c_003b",
          "text": "The most important methodological choice is knowing when to say nothing. The survey is uneven — some species×geography combinations have decades of dense coverage, others a handful of sparse years. We suppress rather than publish a number we don't trust:",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
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      "entityId": "e_004",
      "@type": "Metric",
      "name": "Route-Weighted Index",
      "canonicalLabel": "relative abundance index",
      "description": "Bird Analyst's core relative-abundance metric: the total birds counted on routes that ran in a year, divided by the number of routes that ran. A relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.",
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        {
          "chunkId": "c_004a",
          "text": "Raw counts can't be compared across years directly, because a different number of routes runs each year. So for every species, geography, and year we compute a route-weighted index:",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
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        },
        {
          "chunkId": "c_004b",
          "text": "index = (total birds counted on routes that ran) ÷ (number of routes that ran that year)",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
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        },
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          "chunkId": "c_004c",
          "text": "This is the simplest defensible BBS index: the average number of birds a route detects. It is a relative-abundance index, not an absolute population. An index of 1.4 has no meaning on its own — only its change over time, or its size relative to another geography or species, carries signal.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
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        }
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          "targetDescription": "The average number of birds a standard BBS route detects, tracked over time rather than as an absolute count."
        },
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      "@type": "Methodology",
      "name": "Signal Engine",
      "description": "The fixed rule set that flags a trend notable enough to surface as a card. A signal is editorial attention — a prompt to look closer — not a regulatory finding or a conservation listing.",
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          "chunkId": "c_005a",
          "text": "A signal (or flag) is a trend notable enough to surface as a card. It is editorial attention, not a regulatory finding or a conservation listing — a prompt to look closer, computed by fixed rules so the same shape always flags the same way.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
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          "contentType": "definition"
        }
      ],
      "relations": [
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          "targetName": "Long-Arc Decline / Increase Signal"
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          "targetName": "Guild Collapse Signal"
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      ]
    },
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      "@type": "ProprietaryTerm",
      "name": "Long-Arc Decline / Increase Signal",
      "description": "Bird Analyst's headline signal. It fires when a species' long-term change at a geography is at least ±50%, the series clears the quality gate, and the baseline index is at least 0.05.",
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      "hasChunks": [
        {
          "chunkId": "c_006a",
          "text": "Fires when a species' long-term change at a geography is at least ±50%, the series clears the quality gate (≥ 12 years, ≥ 3 routes), and the baseline index is at least 0.05. That last floor matters: a jump from a near-zero base produces a huge percent that means almost nothing, so we require a non-trivial baseline before a percent change is allowed to flag. Severity is simply the direction — decline or increase.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "entityId": "e_007",
      "@type": "ProprietaryTerm",
      "name": "Guild Collapse Signal",
      "description": "Bird Analyst's structural-decline signal: it fires when a guild's aggregate index is down 40% or more across at least three member species. It fires only on collapse, never on a rise.",
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      "hasChunks": [
        {
          "chunkId": "c_007a",
          "text": "Fires when a guild's aggregate index is down 40% or more across at least three member species. This is the structural-decline signal — the grassland-bird and aerial-insectivore story — and it only fires on collapse, never on a rise.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
          "contentType": "definition"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "entityId": "e_008",
      "@type": "Taxonomy",
      "name": "Ecological Guild",
      "description": "Bird Analyst's ecological classification, assigning every species to one of eleven guilds. Guilds are the conservation-story axis — the group signal that single species can't show.",
      "audienceType": "general",
      "hasChunks": [
        {
          "chunkId": "c_008a",
          "text": "Single species wander year to year; ecological guilds move together, and that group signal is where the conservation story actually lives. We assign every species to one of eleven guilds — forest, grassland, wetland, shorebird, waterfowl, seabird, birds of prey, game birds, aerial insectivores, arid-land, and generalists.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
          "contentType": "definition"
        },
        {
          "chunkId": "c_008b",
          "text": "Ecological groupings tell the conservation story. Grassland birds and aerial insectivores are the steepest-declining guilds across the survey.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/guilds/",
          "pageTitle": "Bird Guild Population Trends | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
          "contentType": "evidence"
        }
      ],
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          "targetName": "Grassland Birds"
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          "targetName": "Aerial Insectivores"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "entityId": "e_009",
      "@type": "Concept",
      "name": "Bird Conservation Region",
      "alternateName": "BCR",
      "description": "The ecologically meaningful geographic unit Bird Analyst computes trends at: large regions of similar habitat and bird communities, defined by the North American Bird Conservation Initiative.",
      "audienceType": "technical",
      "hasChunks": [
        {
          "chunkId": "c_009a",
          "text": "Bird Conservation Region (BCR). The ecologically meaningful unit — large regions of similar habitat and bird communities, defined by the North American Bird Conservation Initiative. A species' trend often makes more sense by BCR than by state, because birds track habitat, not borders.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
          "contentType": "definition"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "entityId": "e_010",
      "@type": "Concept",
      "name": "Grassland Birds",
      "description": "Birds of open grassland habitats — one of the steepest-declining ecological guilds in the Breeding Bird Survey and a core thread of the North American bird-decline story.",
      "sameAs": "https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2228752",
      "audienceType": "general",
      "hasChunks": [
        {
          "chunkId": "c_010a",
          "text": "Grassland birds and aerial insectivores are the cratering groups — the core of the BBS decline narrative.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/",
          "pageTitle": "Bird Analyst · North American Breeding Bird Trends",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
          "contentType": "evidence"
        },
        {
          "chunkId": "c_010b",
          "text": "Guild pages carry hardcoded context for the well-documented decliners (grassland birds, aerial insectivores, shorebirds).",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
          "contentType": "evidence"
        }
      ],
      "relations": [
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      ]
    },
    {
      "entityId": "e_011",
      "@type": "Concept",
      "name": "Aerial Insectivores",
      "description": "Birds that feed on flying insects — swallows, swifts, nightjars, flycatchers — among the steepest-declining ecological guilds in the Breeding Bird Survey.",
      "audienceType": "general",
      "hasChunks": [
        {
          "chunkId": "c_011a",
          "text": "Grassland birds and aerial insectivores are the cratering groups — the core of the BBS decline narrative.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/",
          "pageTitle": "Bird Analyst · North American Breeding Bird Trends",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
          "contentType": "evidence"
        },
        {
          "chunkId": "c_011b",
          "text": "Birds grouped by how they live — grassland birds, aerial insectivores, forest species — and where each group is heading.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/",
          "pageTitle": "Bird Analyst · North American Breeding Bird Trends",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
          "contentType": "definition"
        }
      ],
      "relations": [
        {
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      ]
    },
    {
      "entityId": "e_012",
      "@type": "Methodology",
      "name": "Forecast & Backtest",
      "description": "Where a record is long enough, Bird Analyst projects a series' annual index five years forward with uncertainty bands, and reports a backtest of every forecast's track record.",
      "audienceType": "technical",
      "hasChunks": [
        {
          "chunkId": "c_012a",
          "text": "Where a record is long enough, we project the annual index five years forward with uncertainty bands. A forecast is a projection of the recent trend, not a prediction. Habitat loss, climate, land-use change, and disease are not modeled — if the drivers change, the projection won't.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
          "contentType": "definition"
        },
        {
          "chunkId": "c_012b",
          "text": "Every forecast carries an honesty check. We hold out the most recent 5 years, fit the model on everything before them, forecast those years, and compare to what actually happened.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
          "contentType": "procedure"
        }
      ],
      "relations": [
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          "targetId": "e_013",
          "targetName": "Backtest Error (MAPE)"
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          "targetName": "Route-Weighted Index"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "entityId": "e_013",
      "@type": "Metric",
      "name": "Backtest Error (MAPE)",
      "alternateName": "MAPE",
      "description": "The typical size of a forecast's miss, expressed as a percent; lower is more trustworthy. Bird Analyst publishes it alongside every forecast rather than hiding it.",
      "sameAs": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_absolute_percentage_error",
      "audienceType": "technical",
      "hasChunks": [
        {
          "chunkId": "c_013a",
          "text": "Backtest error (MAPE) — the typical size of the miss, as a percent. Lower is more trustworthy. Long, smooth series score well; short or volatile ones score poorly, and a large MAPE is a signal to treat the projection loosely.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
          "contentType": "definition"
        }
      ],
      "relations": [
        {
          "predicate": "MEASURES",
          "targetName": "forecast accuracy",
          "targetDescription": "How close a backtested forecast lands to the observed index over a held-out window."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "entityId": "e_014",
      "@type": "Concept",
      "name": "Roadside Bias",
      "description": "A structural limitation of the Breeding Bird Survey: routes follow secondary roads and undersample roadless habitat, wilderness interiors, and wetlands.",
      "audienceType": "technical",
      "hasChunks": [
        {
          "chunkId": "c_014a",
          "text": "Roadside bias. Routes follow secondary roads and undersample roadless habitat, wilderness interiors, and wetlands.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
          "contentType": "definition"
        }
      ],
      "relations": [
        {
          "predicate": "RELATES_TO",
          "targetId": "e_002",
          "targetName": "North American Breeding Bird Survey"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "entityId": "e_015",
      "@type": "Concept",
      "name": "Taxonomic Family",
      "description": "The taxonomic grouping (warblers, sparrows, hawks, ducks — about 75 of them) that organizes Bird Analyst's navigation. Family answers what kind of bird this is; guild answers what's happening to birds like it.",
      "sameAs": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_(taxonomy)",
      "audienceType": "general",
      "hasChunks": [
        {
          "chunkId": "c_015a",
          "text": "Taxonomic families (warblers, sparrows, hawks, ducks — about 75 of them) are how people actually browse birds, so they organize the site's navigation. Family pages list their member species ranked by each species' own trend; the family browse view shows a convenience mean-index summary. We do not treat a family as an ecological unit the way we do a guild, because a single family can span very different ways of living.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/methodology/",
          "pageTitle": "Methodology | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
          "contentType": "definition"
        },
        {
          "chunkId": "c_015b",
          "text": "Pick a family to see its species and how each is trending. The familiar groupings: warblers, sparrows, hawks, ducks.",
          "sourceUrl": "https://www.birdanalyst.com/families/",
          "pageTitle": "Bird Population Trends by Family | Bird Analyst",
          "publisher": "Bird Analyst",
          "retrieved": "2026-05-29",
          "contentType": "example"
        }
      ],
      "relations": [
        {
          "predicate": "RELATES_TO",
          "targetId": "e_008",
          "targetName": "Ecological Guild"
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}